Weather Service wants
By Helen Altonn
public to trust forecasts
Star-BulletinForecasts are improving to the point that America some day may have a "no-surprise weather service," said the National Weather Service's new director.
That goal "is causing forecasters to gulp," John J. Kelly said in an interview at the Honolulu forecast office. "I think everyone acknowledges forecasting the weather is a challenge."
But with increased capabilities, research and training, he feels "no surprise" forecasts for short periods aren't far off.
He said that's the vision of the National Weather Service's 5,000 employees, who were asked for feedback by a committee he appointed to look at the agency's future.
"We want goals to stretch at, to get better," he said.
Kelly said the Weather Service wants people to trust forecasts enough so that when warnings are issued they will act on them.
He said there are "far too many instances" when people ignore warnings. "They don't act, then they die."
"Twelve years ago, warnings couldn't be issued for a tornado until it touched ground," Kelly said. Now, 11 minutes lead time can be given before a tornado hits. Yet, Kelly added, many people did nothing when tornado warnings were issued in central Florida.
Flash flooding warnings can be issued 40 minutes in advance but people still try to drive across creeks, he said.
In Hawaii, flash flood forecasts can be issued 35 to 36 minutes before an event, said Jim Weyman, meteorologist-in-charge of the Honolulu forecast office and Central Pacific Hurricane Center director.
Kelly will return to Washington, D.C., tomorrow after visiting Weather Service installations and personnel in the islands and meeting with University of Hawaii, Civil Defense and military officials.
A retired brigadier general and former head of the Air Force Weather Service, Kelly was named assistant administrator for weather services and National Weather Service director for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in February.
He was asked last year to study the service's problems and make recommendations after Elbert W. Friday was fired as the director in a dispute over a $41 million budget deficit.
While criticizing the agency's financial management, Kelly said it needed more money because its budget didn't take into account inflation and pay increases. About 70 percent of the budget is for salaries, he said.
He asked for $671 million for the next federal fiscal year starting in October and was allocated $663 million, he said, noting that will accommodate inflation and salaries and cover the $40 million shortfall.
Kelly, who has 33 years of experience in the weather field, stresses that his agency "is here to serve citizens, and we're trying to do better."
Striving for more efficient operations, he said he's hired a chief financial officer and every forecast office has a warning coordinator meteorologist and science and operations officer.
Restructuring of the Weather Service agency also is under way, with about 184 forecast offices, including the one at Kahului potentially slated for closure.
Equal or better service can be provided from a smaller number of offices because of improved capabilities, Kelly said. A 10-year modernization program costing about $4.5 billion is being completed.
Hawaii's forecast operations changed dramatically with new technology. Weyman said forecast model data is "getting better and better." The models provide forecast data for 10 days and Honolulu forecasters are routinely issuing five-day forecasts, he said.
He said they're trying increasingly to tailor forecasts to certain zones because of variable conditions.
Kelly said new technology will be added steadily to the systems to remain as current as possible and avoid a "big bang" improvement program in the future.
He said he'd like to see stronger relationships between the Honolulu forecast office and tropical, marine and aviation prediction centers on the mainland.
Kelly wants to reach citizens, emergency managers and agencies that use weather data, to learn what they want and to be "more user-friendly."
Besides improved communications within and outside the agency, he's looking at ways to use graphics or write forecasts so anyone can understand them.
