WHEN everything political seemed to be going the Republicans' way early this year, I was doubtful. GOP found a way to
blow the big one"Democrats can play with one hand tied behind the back because they've always been able to count on one thing," I wrote. "No matter how much they screw up, the GOP will screw up worse. Local Republicans have no clue how to win elections."
When Maui Mayor Linda Lingle's gubernatorial bandwagon looked unstoppable, I still wasn't buying it. "Lingle is vulnerable to the 'where's the beef' question in her campaign against Gov. Ben Cayetano," I wrote. "Lingle would make a deadly mistake to think her big early lead in public approval ratings has much to do with her. It's based almost entirely on frustration with the bad economy."
To win, I said, Republicans had to present a compelling vision of what they stand for.
"Cayetano will give voters a clear view of what he thinks the Republicans stand for," I wrote. "The Democratic Party has just begun its loyalty appeal to party members who are giving Lingle a look. Cayetano is a fighter who knows how to win elections. He'll tenaciously pick apart weaknesses Lingle leaves exposed."
That's pretty much the way it turned out. Welcome to the status quo.
After all the hope and hype, Republicans found a way to blow the big one -- just as they did in the 1990 U.S. Senate race and the 1994 governor's race. No governorship for the GOP, no gains in the Legislature or Congress.
It was the same old story. Republicans started with a big lead based on voter discontent with 44 years of Democratic rule. Instead of pressing the lead, GOP strategists dodged tough issues so as not to antagonize prospective Democratic supporters. Democratic leaders countered with loyalty appeals that worked because, in the end, timid Republicans hadn't given Democratic voters compelling reason to leave home.
While Lingle kept saying the election wasn't about Democrats and Republicans and avoided talking about her party or its values, Cayetano was only too happy to talk about his party and its traditional values of equal opportunity, social equity and environmental protection.
Don Clegg, Cayetano's pollster, said the tide turned for the governor after the second televised debate. A glib Lingle ducked specific answers, leaving voters looking for the beef.
In a defining exchange, both candidates opposed gambling but Cayetano talked about its social devastation while Lingle offered a wonky treatise on its economic impact. You could hear Cayetano's message about differing values click in the heads of Democratic voters.
And after all of the boasts about GOP financial acumen, Lingle couldn't count her own money and was unable to buy advertising to match the governor's onslaught in the last days of the campaign.
TO compete, Republicans must present a clear vision that connects with voters. The GOP must extend Lingle's impressive grass-roots organization and become more professional at running campaigns.
Lingle is a strong figure to build around. She ran the most credible Republican race for governor in 36 years and won a solid permanent following among voters of both parties.
Cayetano admitted that winning Democrats should "thank our lucky stars" that they pulled it out one more time, calling the election a wake-up call that Republicans are closing in.
"We had better do what has to be done to get our state together and forget about everything else," he warned.
That would truly be the biggest victory of this election.
David Shapiro is managing editor of the Star-Bulletin.
He can be reached by e-mail at editor@starbulletin.com.
Previous Volcanic Ash columns
