ONE of the nicer things that could happen to the Hawaii economy would be an open skies aviation agreement with Japan. President Clinton seeks one, but people following the negotiation scene think he will wind up settling for less. Open skies airline
agreement with JapanIf the less is an increase of only a few dozen flights a day between Japan and the U.S., they mostly will be gobbled up by service to the mainland and cities not now directly connected to Japan, not added to our approximately 165.
"Open skies" means market-controlled access to each other's airports. We now have government-controlled access that limits flights. It benefits primarily United and Northwest Airlines on our side.
Even with open skies we might not see as great a boost as some would hope. Airlines look for the profitable routes. We are not a major business destination, where the highest fares can be charged. Our high loads are made up of lower-paying vacation travelers.
Our most likely gains under either open skies or a more limited deal will be in neighbor island service -- expanded direct flights to Kona and start-up direct services to Maui once its runway is extended.
Paul Casey, former president of the Hawaii Convention and Visitors Bureau and now president of Hawaiian Airlines, thinks our biggest growth in Asian visitor traffic could come from resumption of nonstop service to Hong Kong. That's permitted now. But no airline sees sufficient profit potential in resuming it.
Direct Hong Kong service, Casey says, could open up all of South China for us plus much of Southeast Asia. Cathay Airlines is being wooed.
We now get two daily flights from both Korea and Taiwan. They pretty well fill market demand, Casey says. There is no hope for dramatic growth there.
All those flights are by their carriers, just as our only flights to Australia and New Zealand now are by their carriers. U.S. lines have opted out.
Expanding air service to Hawaii was one of Casey's goals when he took the HCVB presidency. He's still seeking it from his HAL seat, and will soon be back in the HCVB scene as vice-chairman of its managing board of directors and then chairman. These positions are filled from private industry.
Part of the problem was outlined a few months ago by Don Fields, then international aviation coordinator for the state Airports Division. He has since taken an assignment with the metropolitan Washington, D.C., airport authority as air service development manager.
FIELDS still watches the air frequency scene. He joins Casey in being skeptical of any full-fledged open skies agreement being achieved with Japan and in only qualified optimism about unlocking more market potential in Japan for Hawaii.
He pointed out earlier this year that the average per mile fare yield between Hawaii and the U.S. mainland is one of the lowest in the business -- 6.1 cents on the Los Angeles route, 6.9 for San Francisco. The national average is 12.3.
In Hawaii-Japan service the average passenger pays 10 to 15 cents per mile. Open skies might drive that down, but also might drive airlines to look for destinations where they would have more business travelers.