A key factor will be the get-out-the-vote campaigns directed at new citizens who trace their roots to Asia and the Pacific islands, said William Kaneko, 35, director of Asian Pacific Affairs for the Democratic National Committee.
"The first party that gets to them wins," said Kaneko, who's here to lead briefings and workshops for the 162 Asian-Pacific delegates to the Democratic National Convention.
Democrats are targeting Asian-Pacific voters in 10 states: Hawaii, California, New York, Texas, Washington, Illinois, Florida, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Maryland.
A recent poll sponsored by Asian Week, a leading Asian-American publication, also gives credence to the belief that the Asian-Pacific vote will be crucial, said Kaneko, who worked as a planning and policy analyst in former Hawaii Gov. John Waihee's administration.
The survey found that Asian-Americans were virtually evenly split in party loyality.
Twenty-eight percent identified themselves as Democrats and 27 percent as Republicans. But 41 percent said they are "switch voters," meaning they vote about equally for Democrats and Republicans.
Another reason the Asian-Pacific vote is important: Asians and Pacific Islanders are concentrated in California, New York and three other states that have large electoral votes.
So while Asian and Pacific Islanders may constitute only 3.9 percent of the population in New York, for example, that percentage is within the range of an electoral victory margin, he said.
"Three to four percent. Those type of margins win elections."
As a political operative in Hawaii, Kaneko worked for candidates Waihee, Michael Dukakis, Daniel Akaka and Matt Matsunaga. He also has been a national vice president of the Japanese American Citizens League.
Despite the concerns of Hawaii Democrats that national party strategists have long taken the islands for granted because they have been dominated by Democrats for the past four decades, Kaneko vowed that won't happen during his watch. "I've taken a special interest in Hawaii. So it is not off the radar screen."
He's watching Republican Orson Swindle's second challenge to U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie closely.
The U.S. House could go either Republican or Democrat, so it is important for incumbent Democrats to retain their seats if Democrats are to regain the majority, Kaneko said.
And if Asians and Pacific Islanders want the recently signed welfare reform bill stripped of provisions that prohibit assistance to legal immigrants, then they need to re-elect President Clinton and return Congress to Democratic control, Kaneko said.